The West Should Reconsider Total Afghan Exit

If the West is unhappy with Russia’s invasion of Crimea, it should reconsider a total exit strategy from Afghanistan to prevent another Ukraine-like scenario.

Earlier this month Russian forces stormed Crimea, a strategic peninsula which had been an integral part of Ukraine. On March 16, Crimeans voted to join Russia in a referendum that was supported by Russia and denounced as illegitimate by Western powers and Ukraine.

The rest of the world threatened to isolate and sanction Russia; however Moscow does not seem deterred and the Kremlin seems to be operating in the Soviet era.

In such a complicated scenario, what can the West do and what implications does this have for Western allies?

Here are two possible scenarios.

Another Cold War

It is not possible and perhaps unwise for the international community to get involved in another Cold War.  The first one was ugly, costly and violent in some countries such as Afghanistan.

The Cold War did result in the collapse of the Berlin Wall and perhaps in the economic hegemony of Western countries; however, it also sowed the seeds for radicalization in various countries that threatens the very core values of the West and democracy.

With the existence of an economically strong China and its improved relations with the Russians who are lax on North Korean, Iranian and Syrian issues, confronting the so-called Eastern bloc militarily would be unwise and perhaps destabilizing for world peace.

Here’s a better alternative.

West should improve common ground with Eastern bloc

The West and the Eastern bloc shares common concerns on weak states such as Afghanistan being prey to insurgency and radicalization.  They can not only pose threats to their own democratic governments; they also have become global issues causing fears of terrorism, illegal immigration, drug trafficking etc.

This is common ground where East agrees with the West. Therefore, both sides should work towards a policy that explores such common interests and use them to bridges gaps in interests between the so-called Western and a resurgent Eastern bloc.

East and West on Afghanistan

After being in Afghanistan for almost 12 years, the US-led coalition has threatened a “zero option” exit strategy from Afghanistan. This has been reiterated after Afghan President Hamid Karzai delayed signing the BilateralSecurity Agreement (BSA) with the US for preconditions he thinks should be met before signing such a document.

Congress responded with slashing 50 percent of its civilian aid to Afghanistan and a further cut-off in aid and support to the Afghan security institutions. This is premature and perhaps ill-advised.

Coming out of the Cold War as a divided country ruled by the Taliban, Afghan institutions are still weak. Democracy needs more time to mature. The Afghan economy needs more development aid and foreign investment to become self-reliant. We need to maintain achievements in education and women empowerment still needs investment and support.

As voiced in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul in Nov. 2013, most Afghans want closer relations with the world. Few want a return to the 1990s or even 1970s when Communists briefly ruled the country.

However, the “zero option” threat could push Afghanistan back to the 1990s or even earlier circumstances.

Such a scenario may provoke Russia and other regional players to reconsider its role in Afghanistan, where a considerable number of former Soviet Union loyalists still live. Whether the West wants such a situation or a Crimea type intervention is a question for Western capitals to answer.

Watching the developments in Crimea and analyzing recent Russian foreign policy moves, the West does not seem happy. Therefore, it needs to keep its patience in countries such as Afghanistan and work on common interest of building stronger states from within. Otherwise, the geopolitical loss and Cold War politics in countries like Afghanistan may be too costly for Western capitals including Washington to accept.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoffs' Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/west-afghan-exit-247/

The Quarrel on BSA - Wishes of the Afghan People

The negotiations on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the US have stalled. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he may not sign the agreement as he wants US assurance for peace before he signs the document, while the US sees bringing peace as a long process and is threatening to pull out all troops by the end of 2014 if the BSA is not signed.  

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidelines for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces will be withdrawn.   

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the US and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community. This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga meeting in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. 

However, Karzai has declined to sign the agreement any time soon. Most recently he said in an interview with the Washington Post that he wouldn't sign it and perhaps his future replacement could sign the document. 

Karzai's official position is that the document should not be only a nicely worded and rhetorical document, but it should pave the way for lasting peace and security in Afghanistan. He believes Afghan peace is in the hands of the US and Pakistan. 

What he means by stating this publicly is that the US can exert sufficient diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to bring the Taliban to serious peace talks. Afghanistan believes Pakistan may have influence over the insurgent groups across the border. 

The US finds it hard to respond to reach an agreement over this with Karzai, thus negotiations have stalled.

Whether the BSA is signed or not will have significant implications for both Afghanistan and the world. Two scenarios can be predicted. One is that the BSA is not signed and US and other NATO forces leave Afghanistan for good. Another is that the BSA is left to the new president to sign.  

If the BSA is not signed and the US and allies decide to leave Afghanistan for good at the end of 2014, it would be a dangerous and perhaps an unwise decision. Afghanistan still needs international technical and financial support to establish thorough and capable forces that are able to defend Afghanistan's integrity and have a monopoly over power.  

Such a decision would also open up the country's weak institutions to potential exploitation, as happened in the 1990s, and devolve the country back to one that poses serious security threats affecting Afghanistan, its immediate neighbors and rest of the world. 

Besides, all the efforts and achievements of the country in the past decade would soon vanish as weak institutions and budding democracy still need international attention and support to mature. 

Thus, while the BSA is an important agreement, the international community should not link the complete pullout with financial support to Afghanistan.

A second scenario is that the US plans beyond the Afghan presidential elections to be held next month and has the BSA signed with the next government. This may be a better decision as most of the presidential candidates have shown interest in singing the document. 

However, in deciding this the US would risk time and there is no guarantee that a future president would be swift in signing the BSA before the end of 2014. 

It is also important for the international community to take into consideration the needs and willingness of the Afghan people to seek international commitment in building on their enormous achievements since 2002 and to create a better society in Afghanistan well beyond 2014. 

In this regard, the political upheaval and disagreements over the BSA should not be the only deciding factor on staying or leaving in Afghanistan. 

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/

Why Afghans are ‘The Dark Horse’ in Sports

A recent article in the UAE called Afghan cricketers the ‘Dark Horse’ which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

The world outside Afghanistan does not hear much good news about Afghans. News on violent incidents, a murky insurgent war, andwomen’s rights usually make headlines across popular global media outlets. However, there are lots of positive things happening in this beautiful Central Asian country that the outside world may not know.

Among others, sports are flourishing in the country; its national players are making headlines for achievements that stun many. Football (soccer) and cricket are two sports where Afghans have proven their worth.

Afghanistan as the South Asian Soccer Champs

Not long ago, Afghanistan’s national football team was in disarray. Under the Taliban, football was banned as it did not fit well with their political agenda. Afghan youth could not imagine playing the game again in Afghanistan.

However, after the new government in 2002, Afghan soccer players re-entered the Ghazi soccer stadium in Kabul, used for prosecution just a few years ago. In less than a decade, Afghanistan went on to beat regional giants. On December 11, 2011, Afghanistan played in the final with India and lost due to a biased umpire. However, on September 11, 2013, the Afghan national team beat India in the South Asian Football Champions final to become the football champions in the region.

Watching the game live on TVs in Kabul, emotions were high among the diverse Afghan nation. Cheers and prayers accompanied every minute of the final game. Afghanistan remained undefeated in the tournament of the South Asian countries and went on to win the championship. Celebrations in Kabul were unusual. It was the first time in Afghan history that all Afghans cheered in jubilation of their national prestige. Thousands stormed out to the streets of Kabul to make it a lively event. Under the beautiful and colorful flag of Afghanistan, Afghans cheered praises of their country in unison.

Afghans Stunning the World in Cricket

Afghan cricket is another amazing story. Nearly 10 years ago, cricket did not exist in Afghanistan. Only those Afghans who had lived in Pakistan had learned it, and had practiced playing with a tennis ball wrapped in white scotch tape. Afghan refugees would come out to playgrounds in burning heat in Pakistani towns to play and enjoy the sports. In many instances, they would win from the local Pakistani teams in Pakistan.

After the Karzai government in Afghanistan, some of those Afghans returned to Afghanistan. They formed an amateur cricket team to practice the game in country. Despite minimum equipment, training and facilities, it wasn’t long until they began crushing  international teams outside their home country.

Now, the Afghan national team has not only qualified for the international world cups with the One Day International (ODI) and the newer format T20 versions of the game; they are also winning at the under 19 level and winning big.  Most recently, the Afghan under-19 national team has beaten cricket giants such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia (teams like Brazil in soccer) and is in the quarter finals of the ICC World Cup to be played this week.

The Afghan national cricket team is also a success story. They are now in Sri Lanka preparing for the Asia Cup, a regional competition including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The team is also preparing for the upcoming ICC T20 World Cup as well as the ICC ODI World Cup tournaments to be played later this year. They are expected to surprise viewers.

Afghan cricket players are described as ruthless and aggressive. They win big and win with style. A recent commentary in the United Arab Emirates called them the “Dark Horse” which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

As Afghan youth have proven themselves in the soccer and cricket fields, they are also committed to making Afghanistan a leading nation both in the region and abroad. And they can do so.

With keeping the sports a-political, open to more Afghans, and provided with the right resources and attention both from the Afghan government and internationals, it can continue to play a more successful role in further pacifying and uniting a nation that has been too long devastated by war and conflict.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/afghans-dark-horse-sports-214/