Time is Ripe for a New Chapter in Af-Pak Relations

Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s new president has provided hope for peace and stability to the troubled nation.

Even in his first weeks in office, President Ghani, a former World Bank technocrat and professor in leading American Universities, has embarked on sweeping reforms from tackling corruption to resolving the issues of the prisoners in Kabul’s Puli Charkhi prison. Ghani seems serious and an ideal leader for a post-conflict country such as Afghanistan where people want swift actions from public leaders and are usually frustrated by lack of action.

President Ghani has yet to nominate his cabinet and governors of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The general perception in Afghanistan is that together with his Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, he will nominate one soon, and it could be a more technocratic one than compared to his predecessor, Hamid Karzai. Ghani’s minister selection will be important for delivering on his campaign promises and furthering the tasks he has started in Afghanistan.

Among the many policy issues facing Ghani, a major one is how he tackles Afghanistan’s troubled relations with its eastern neighbor, Pakistan.

Afghanistan and Pakistan share a long border of nearly 2,600 kilometres (1,615 miles) named as the “Durand Line.” Pakistan recognizes this line as an “international border” crossing inherited from British India; Afghanistan, however, recognizes it only as a temporary boundary that was agreed to between British India and the Afghan Emir more than a century ago. Borer disputes have resulted in serious mistrust between Kabul and Islamabad, and both sides have failed to capitalize on the enormous economic benefits they can reap from establishing cordial relations.

Hamid Karzai, the outgoing Afghan president, labeled Pakistan as one of the key stakeholders to peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, he also outlined that his nearly 20 state visits to Pakistan and many efforts failed to result in any constructive outcome.

Now that there is new leadership in Kabul and that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is keen on contributing to a more stable region, it might be the right time for both sides to turn pages and open a new chapter in Af-Pak relations.

Unlike the past, President Ghani should take lead and propose a more compromising approach that builds trust and enables Pakistan to see more benefits in Afghan stability. One thing that President Ghani should make sure to avoid is to break from the past where most of Afghanistan’s problems are blamed on Pakistan.

Instead, President Ghani’s government should opt for a policy that recognizes the need for mutual Af-Pak relations, defies issues of mistrust and promises good will for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This policy should also focus on promoting regional economic cooperation that in turn can foster mutual respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Pakistan’s leadership should also respect Afghan’s desire for stability and actively engage with Kabul on overcoming political and security challenges. Unlike the past, Pakistan’s strategic depth policy should seek closer economic ties with Afghanistan and understand that building better and more trustful relations with Afghanistan’s legitimate government in Kabul is better for Pakistan’s future stability.

If both Afghan and Pakistani leaders can make this shift in their foreign policies, the two Asian countries can benefit from significant economic and political relations, and collectively contribute to more prosperous societies in the region.

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This article is also published at SGV at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/af-pak-relations-401/

China Can Steer Afghans Away from Chaos

China recently appointed Sun Yuxi as a special envoy for Afghanistan's affairs. Sun, who has served as Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan and India, arrived in Kabul on July 23, meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, as well as both presidential candidates hoping to replace him. Both sides discussed their mutual interest in a stable Afghanistan and the potential for increased cooperation between the two countries.

During the reign of former Afghan king Mohammed Zahir Shah, the Sino-Afghan relationship saw both sides commit to increased mutual support and economic cooperation. However, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, China opted for a more reserved foreign policy in Afghanistan.

China has done its best to avoid being dragged into Afghan geopolitics or becoming an active player in the Afghan political quagmire. Rather, it has kept an eye on developments in Afghanistan through Pakistan, its most trusted ally in the region.

After the Taliban came to power in the late 1990s, China remained impartial, despite its wariness at potential spillover of the Taliban political agenda to its western regions.

As an immediate neighbor to Afghanistan, China cannot remain a bystander or merely a business participant in Afghanistan's affairs.

It must play a bigger and more active role in the stability of the country, particularly when Western countries are packing up to leave, a transition that is putting enormous political and economic pressure on Afghanistan.

The appointment of Sun as China's special envoy for Afghanistan's affairs is a positive development in this process. Now, China should focus on a number of practical follow-on steps.

First, China needs to be closely involved in supporting a smooth political transition in Afghanistan. Looking at the reactions to the announcement of the preliminary results of the presidential elections, Afghan candidates find it hard to accept loss in elections and may turn on each other violently.

Such reactions can lead to significant instability in Afghanistan that may not only embolden the insurgency in this country but also threaten Afghanistan's immediate neighbors, including China.

China needs to join hands with the international community to encourage all sides to accept the results of the elections, and to contribute to a peaceful political transition and stability in Afghanistan.

Second, China can contribute to Afghanistan's political stability by undertaking a more proactive role in building trust between Afghanistan and Pakistan, helping them overcome political hostility.

Kabul has long complained of a lack of genuine support from Islamabad in quelling the insurgency and getting positive results from ongoing peace talks. Several times, Karzai has expressed his view that Pakistan may have significant influence over the success of the political dialogue with the Taliban and other groups resisting Kabul.

As a close ally of Pakistan in the region, China can play a more vital and more successful role than many Western countries have done so far in mediating between Afghanistan and its southeastern neighbor.

Finally, China can help contribute to Afghanistan's political stability by playing a more active role in supporting the Afghan government's security establishment.

Working closely with the international community, China should help in training and equipping Afghan national security personnel.

Also, China can help Kabul share the economic burden of paying its security bills until the latter can do this on its own.

Through political, security and economic cooperation, China can lead more effective efforts to bring lasting stability to Afghanistan and the wider region.

Through revived regional trade, China can also create economic prosperity for not only Afghans or Chinese, but all of the peoples of South and Central Asia.

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This article was also published on Global Times at: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/874069.shtml

Afghans Successfully Conduct Run-Off Presidential Elections

Afghans once again proved they want peace and democracy to prevail in their homeland.

On June 14, nearly 7 million Afghans, 31 percent of them women, turned out to vote in the historic run-off Presidential elections in Afghanistan.

This is the first time Afghanistan is preparing for an elected president to transfer power to another candidate through the ballot box.

The fact that this election has attracted so much interest in Afghanistan and received a big voter turnout proves Afghans have come a long way in leading their nation and in defying those not wanting the democratic process to succeed.

The Election Campaigns

Afghans were left to choose from two candidates: Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, when the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan announced in May 2014 that none of the candidates had secured 50%+1 of the total votes.

In the official election campaigns, candidates reached out to their constituencies across Afghanistan to secure votes. The candidates promised many to do(s) from restructuring the political system to establishing new provinces in the country, from building the economy and roads to improving human rights.

Media outlets were also busy. Some worked directly for broadcasting political campaigns for one of the candidates; others benefited from lucrative and colorful advertisements. However, most of the media outlets were disappointed when one of the candidates intentionally turned downed requests for a public debate with the other candidate.

The Election Day

The election-day in Afghanistan was a festive one. Despite security threats, Afghans came out in large numbers to vote. Men and women, young and the old wanted to vote and be part of the history in making in Afghanistan.

In some provinces, music accompanied the election process. Further live coverage from Afghanistan’s vibrant media outlets, the TVs in particular, made it possible for Afghans to watch the process in the comfort of their homes and be independent observers on the ballot boxes.

In the midst of all these efforts, Afghan security forces were the real heroes. They were the ones that made Afghans proud by making the day a relatively peaceful one across the country. Minor security incidents were reported but none threatened the election process. The security forces proved they are capable of keeping order in tact and they can be counted on as national heroes of this war-torn country.

Results of the Elections

Afghanistan election law requires all complaints to be attended to before partial and final results are announced. The Independent Election Commission for Complaints collects all grievances from the candidate’s group, reviews them and in light of them approves or disapprove the results of a polling station.

After all complains are addressed, the results are sent to the Independent Election Commission for announcement. The initial results of today’s elections are due on July 2 while the final results are due sometime later in July.

Afghans eagerly look forward to hearing these results and ask on both candidates to accept the results. They expect both Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ghani to be responsible Afghan leaders that will respect the decision of the Afghan people and continue to play a stabilizing role in Afghanistan; otherwise, they risk national disapproval.

Work Waiting the New President

After President Obama has announced for the US military draw down and eventual reduction of forces to only a few hundred by end of 2016 in Afghanistan, a major job waiting a new Afghan president is to prepare for this transition.

Afghan forces still need support to be prepared in dealing with the insurgency and security threats here. A new president would also need to keep international support mainly from the US through the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) to maintain the necessary resources for this transition to be successful.

Other than the security transition, another challenge facing the new Afghan leadership is putting an end to the Taliban insurgency in the country. Afghans understand that in order for the country to maintain its achievements of the last decade, it needs viable and sustainable peace. This isn’t possible without reaching a truce with all insurgent groups including the Taliban. A new president would need to have a new approach to making this happen.

Beyond the challenges in political scenario, Afghanistan also needs to further its economic development agenda. The country still grapples with poverty, lack of investment and jobs for the youth in particular. Also, Afghanistan is faced with a declining international aid environment.

Therefore, a new leader would need to have the necessary skills and political will to better manage its internal resources. This includes ending the perception of corruption and exploring alternative resources such as trade facilitation, revenue mobilization and natural resource management to boost economic growth and development.

The Way Forward for Afghanistan

Today, Afghans once again proved they want peace and democracy to prevail in their homeland. They are not afraid to go out and vote despite numerous challenges; on the contrary, Afghans are ever resilient and committed to bringing a change and lead Afghanistan’s march towards a mature and stable democracy.

However, in order for this resilient country to build on its recent achievements and avoid relapse to a weak state vulnerable to conflicts and interventions, Afghanistan still needs strong international support mainly from Washington. Many Afghans hope this will continue well beyond 2014.

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This article was also published on Sharnoff Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/afghans-presidential-elections-331/

يوه څوکی او ۱۱ کاندیدان

يوه څوکی او ۱۱ کاندیدان

محب ارسلان

د اپریل په ۵ نیټه میلیونونه افغانان د ګواخونو ، ستونزو ، سړی او بارانی هوا سره سره د رایو ورکولو محلونو ته ورغلل او خپله رایه یی وکاروله.  دی کار دنیاوال هیران کړل، هغوی دا هیله نه درلوده چی په دومره شمیر ډیر افغانان په داسی نسبتا سختو شرایطو کی به د رایو ورکولو تلوسه او عزم ولری.  خو افغانانو دا کار وکړ او جمهور ریس کرزی ته یی دا زمینه برابره کړه چی د افغانستان په تاریخ کی لمړنی ولسمشر شی چی واک  بل کاندید ته د رایو د لاری په مصالحت امیزه توګه د قانون په چوکاټ کی انتقال کړی.

خو یوه ستونزه چی ډیرو افغانانو په دی پروسه کی تجربه کړه هغه د کاندیدانو تعدد وو.  نام خدا یولس کاندیدانو دا ادعا کړی وه چی سل زره کارتونه یی د افغانستان د ۲۴ ولایتونو څخه راټول کړی او ددوی پلویان دی.  په دی یولس کاندیدانو کی داسی څهری هم راښکاره شوی چی نه خو یی علمی او نه یی هم ملکی اهلیت درلوده.  د نتایجو د پایلو د اعلان وروسته دا جوته شوه چی یا خو دوی چا تیر وستی وو او یا خو هم دوی د افغانانو د یوه موټی کیدو سره نه علاقه درلوده او نه یی پکی خپلی شخصی ګټی لیدلی.

د نوموړو کاندیدانو یواځینی لاسته راوړنه داوه چی د خلکو رایی  یی تقسیم کړی او پری نښودل چی د مخکښو کاندیدانو څخه یی یو هم د ۵۰ فیصدو څخه د زیاتو رایو اکثریت لاسته راوړی.  خو یوه ګټه یی وکړه او هغه داوه چی پر دی متیقن شول چی په واقعی ډول د خلکو په منځ کی د دوی محبوبیت څو فیصده دی. 

د نوموړو فیصدو په پام کی نیولو سره افغانانو باید یو درس زده کړی وی او هغه دادی چی په راتلونکی کی یواځی څو کاندیدانو ته د نامزدی شرایط برابر کړی او د یوی مړی ډوډی، څادر او یا خولی په بدل کی خپل کارتونه داسی کاندیدانو ته ورنکړی چی په سلو کی یی د ګټلو امکان یو فیصد هم نه وی.  که نه د همدی ځل ټاکنو د تجربی په اساس به په راتلونکی کی هم خپل وجدان ته او هم خپل  خالق ته ملامت وی. 

افغانستان یو غریب ملک دی، هغه دارای چی اوس د ټاکنو په دوهم پړاوو لږول کیږی ، هغه باید د افغانانو د ژوند په ښه کولو لږیدلی وای .  اوس نو قضاوت زمونږ دی چی دغه اخوا دیخوا کاندیدان څومره د افغانانو او یا افغانستان  سوکالی ته مخلص وو؟  

افغانستان بعد از ۲۰۱۴ 

محب ارسلان

امریکا و متحدین آن پلان خروج نیروهای نظامی خود را ازافغانستان اعلام نموده و تعداد زیادی از آنها شروع به خروج نیروها و کارزارهای نظامی خود را کرده اند. برای بدست اوردن این هدف و تطبیق برنامه واگذاری قدرت به  افغانها چندین برنامه ها روی کار هستند.

یک برنامه واگذاری مسولیت امنیتی به نیرو های افغان است.  حالا اردوی افغانستان عملیات نظامی را مستقیما رهبری میکنند و نظامیان خارجی در این زمینه نیروی های افغان را با امکانات مالی، تخنیکی و وسایل همکاری مینمایند.  همچنان پولیس ملی افغان مسلکی شده اند و مسولیت امنیت را در شهرهای افغانستان بدوش دارند.

در پهلوی اخذ مسولیت امنیتی و نظامی، افغانها مسولیت رهبر کردن کارهای انکشافی را نیز بدوش خود گرفته اند.  دولت افغانستان ملکیت برنامه های انکشافی و عامه را میگیرد و سکتور خصوصی خدمات و کار ها را انجام میدهد که کمپنی های خارجی ان را در گذشته انجام مینمودند.  

مقایسه حالات امروزی با حالات سال های ١٩٩٠

بعضی ها شرایط افغانستان را ممثل شرایط میدانند که شوروی ها  از افغانسان بیرون رانده شدند.  آن زمان دولت افغانستان ضعیف بود و با یک شورش قوی ایدولوژیک روبرو بود، بیکاری در بین جوان ها زیاد بود و حالات کلی اقتصادی بد بود.  همچنان روابط افغانستان با کشور های همسایه به خصوص با پاکستان وضیعت بد داشت.  

دولت فعلی افغانستان نیز با چنین چالشها روبرو است، اما شرایط امروزی کشور با شرایط سال های ١٩٩٠ به کلی متفاوت است.

امروز قانون اساسی افغانستان این کشور را یک جمهوری اسلامی خوانده است.  پس هیچ کدام دلیلی برای شورش علنی ایدولوژیک وجود ندارد.  همچنان  دولت فعلی افغانستان در انزوای بین المللی قرار ندارد.  امروز افغانستان با تعداد کثیر از کشورهای غربی و منطقه روابط خوب دارد و با آنها قراردادهای ستراتیژیک را امضا نموده اند.  این قرار دادها تداوم روابط افغانستان را با کشورهای مهم جهان تعریف نموده و تعهد آنها را به افغانستان بعد از سال ٢٠١٤ م  واضح میسازد. علاوه بر این قرارداد های ستراتیژیک، افغانستان در حال گفتگو  در مورد قرارداد امنیتی دو جانبه با ایالات متحده امریکا است.  این قرار داد برای تداوم روابط افغانستان با ایالات متحده امریکا و باقی ماندن یک تعداد محدود نظامیان آنها در افغانستان لازمی است.  لویه جرگه افغانها به ریس جمهور کرزی مشوره داد تا این قرارداد را با در نظرداشت منافع ملی افغانستان امضا نماید.  با وجود چنه زنیهای دوامدار بین کرزی و ایالات متحده امریکا، بعید نیست که این سند به امضا برسد و زمینه بودن نظامیان امریکایی  را در افغانستان بعد از سال ۲۰۱۴م در یک چارچوب دوجانبه قانونی سازد.

تغیریات دیگر نیز امروز مشاهده میشود که در سالهای ١٩٩٠ تصور آن هم نمی شد.  در آن زمان تنها چند پوهنتون های محدود دولتی وجود داشت و آنها هم چندان امکانات را نداشتند.  امروز در پهلوی دانشگاهای دولتی،  به صدها موسستا تعلیمی و تحصیلی خصوصی محصلین افغان را آموزش میدهند.  سیستم خصوصی صحی هیچ موجود نداشت، امروز به صدها شفاخانها و کلینیک های خصوصی در پهلوی شفاخانهای دولتی فعال هستند و خدمات صحی را به افغانها فراهم میسازند.  بعضی از این ادارت خارجی هستند که نمونه آن کلینیک جرمن در شهر نو کابل است که خدمات را به سطح بین المللی به افغانها ارایه مینماید. همچنان انکشافات که در سکتور تعمیر زیربناها، رشد تکنالوژی معلوماتی و مخابراتی، بانکداری، هوانوردی، تجارت و خدمات ترانسپورتی مشاهده میشود، در تاریخ افغانستان بی نظیر میباشند.  

نظر افغانها در مورد تحولات فعلی

افغانهای عادی این تحولات را نادیده نمی گیرند.  آنها میدانند که پیشرفت افغانستان زمینه کار را مساعد ساخته و تاثیر مثبت را بالای زندگی آنها داشته است.  با یک تکسی ران کابل که در مورد تحولات و پیشرفتهای افغانستان صحبت میکردم برایم گفت که اصلاً افغانستان امروز با سال های ١٩٩٠ قابل مقایسته نیست.  امروز یک افغان فرصتهای زیادی را برای کسب تعلیم و تربیه دارد، میتواند به راحت به بسیاری از ولایات کشور و یا هم بیرون از کشور سفر نماید.  در سالهای ١٩٩٠ مردم نمی توانست تا از شرق به غرب کابل بروند.   

با این که انتخابات پیشرو ریاست جمهوری و بعضی از مسایل دیگر افغانها را برای اینده خود و کشور شان نگران میکند ، اما هیچ کدام آنها خواهان حالات سال های ١٩٩٠ و یا برگذشت به آن نیستند.  افغانها میدانند که هم خود شان و هم بعضی از خارجی ها خون و ثروت خود را برای ایجاد حالات امروزی صرف نموده اند و به آن هرج میگذارند.

 افغانها میخواهند که انتخابات ارام را داشته باشند، با دنیا روابط نزدیک داشته باشند، با همسایه گان روابط خوب به اساس احترام متقابل داشته باشند و به صورت کلی حرکت خود را به سوی یک افغانستان مرفع و ارام ادامه دهند.  اما یک موضوع مهم تعریف و تسریع کننده تمام این خواسته  ها بعد از سال ٢٠١٤ م میباشد:  آن موضوع تقویه اتحاد ذات البینی بین تمام اقوام و اقشار افغان است.  

پس بحیث یک افغان (پسر و یا دختر این سرزمین)، باید در محدوده صلاحیت و مسولیت خود برای اتحاد افغانها و تقویه روحیه ملی مسولیت خود را شناساسی و اجرا نمایم.

Afghan Elections: A Proof of Success in Afghanistan

As Afghanistan continues to transition towards democracy, it is important for the world to realize that intervention has not failed.

Afghan men line up for the registration process before they cast their votes at a polling station in Kabul. Credit: AP

In the 12 years that the West has spent in Afghanistan since 2002, some analysts are now calling the mission a total failure and insist on a complete withdrawal.

Their argument is that the West cannot “impose” a democratic governing system on a traditional Afghan society, which they refer to as tribal and resentful to change.

Media coverage of Afghanistan has disheartened Western opinion. Most do not know about other developments in the country. A closer examination reveals that the mission is not a failure, but a worthy effort for enduring freedom.

Afghanistan post-Taliban

When the Taliban took over Afghanistan, the country had plunged into a chaotic war zone. Warring factions that once stood together with Western and regional support against the Soviet Army and Communist regime in Kabul had turned on each other making living in Afghanistan practically impossible.

Fueled with regional interventions and international politics of the Cold War, systematic radicalization was breeding in Afghanistan in such that tolerance for human dignity, Afghanistan’s cultural heritage and women rights had vanished.

The situation continued until the unfortunate 9/11 events when the world realized committing a major mistake by leaving Afghanistan in the 1980s after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union to the mercy of the gunmen and bad regional politics.

Afghanistan post-Karzai

After the Bonn Agreement in 2002, Afghanistan regained recognition. The country started a difficult march towards instituting a new constitution, forming a transitional government and then holding elections to nominate their first democratic leadership in more than 30 decades. All went well.  Today Afghanistan has a progressive constitution in the region; and elections have been held successfully.

Furthermore, international development aid coupled with currency and private sector licensing reforms has helped the country to rebuild its economy. Economic growth jumped and remained at nearly 10 percent during the last decade; it is still growing.

For instance, Afghanistan now has many commercial banks, private schools and universities, a vibrant telecommunication sector, paved roads, and a functioning national army and police force.

Looking towards the future, Afghanistan still has great potential for becoming a transportation hub between Central and South Asia; the Middle East and China; and for becoming a vibrant explorer and exporter of its abundant natural resources.

In addition, more Afghans including women are going to school and vocational institutions resulting in a new and young natural resource for the country that will capitalize on new opportunities. The country’s other sectors such as agriculture, health and education, carpets and minerals provides huge investment opportunities to investors all over the world. In a decade or so and good management from Afghan leadership, these sectors would lead to Afghanistan become independent of foreign aid and able to pay its own bills.

Security has improved. Afghan security institutions have become more professional and have taken the responsibility for keeping Afghan streets safer. Afghans are ever resilient to continue with these developments and further transform the country to a more prosperous one in the region.

Recent Afghan Elections

Afghans went to polls on April 5 to vote for a new president and members of the provincial councils across Afghanistan. Pre-election threats of violent incidences did not scare Afghans. The atmosphere in Kabul in the last week before the elections was sober with many in-country foreigners opting to leave for Dubai, Delhi or even Washington to mitigate security risks.

On April 5, however, Afghans stunned the world.

They came out in huge numbers all across the country to be part of making history by giving President Hamid Karzai the opportunity to become the first elected Afghan president to transfer political power to the next presidential hopeful through the ballot box.

Afghans also proved that they want the ballots to rule the country, not bullets anymore. More than 7 million Afghans of the nearly 12 million registered voters came out vote. The polling day was a festive national celebration for all Afghans. Afghan security establishments provided security to voters; it was an Afghan effort for Afghans. No major security incident was allowed to happen.

Election results are expected in a couple of weeks after the election commission has addressed all concerns. An important lesson has been that unlike other war-stricken countries or other countries in the region, Afghans value democracy and value the process to elect their leadership through the ballot box.

Moving Forward

Entering the transitional decade in Afghanistan, it is important for the world to realize that their intervention in Afghanistan is not a failure.

It is vital to understand that Afghans have a solution and that they want a more pluralistic, democratic society. Most Afghans eye on a model country where law rules and Afghan women are also an integral part of the development processes in the country.

However, it’s equally important to understand that Afghanistan still needs international engagement and support to sustain these mutual achievements. A continued so-called light footprint engagement accompanied with sound investment and assistance to the country will also be an important to realize and build on the sacrifices of the hundreds of men and women who have fallen on the way to bringing peace to the country at the heart of Asia.

The West Should Reconsider Total Afghan Exit

If the West is unhappy with Russia’s invasion of Crimea, it should reconsider a total exit strategy from Afghanistan to prevent another Ukraine-like scenario.

Earlier this month Russian forces stormed Crimea, a strategic peninsula which had been an integral part of Ukraine. On March 16, Crimeans voted to join Russia in a referendum that was supported by Russia and denounced as illegitimate by Western powers and Ukraine.

The rest of the world threatened to isolate and sanction Russia; however Moscow does not seem deterred and the Kremlin seems to be operating in the Soviet era.

In such a complicated scenario, what can the West do and what implications does this have for Western allies?

Here are two possible scenarios.

Another Cold War

It is not possible and perhaps unwise for the international community to get involved in another Cold War.  The first one was ugly, costly and violent in some countries such as Afghanistan.

The Cold War did result in the collapse of the Berlin Wall and perhaps in the economic hegemony of Western countries; however, it also sowed the seeds for radicalization in various countries that threatens the very core values of the West and democracy.

With the existence of an economically strong China and its improved relations with the Russians who are lax on North Korean, Iranian and Syrian issues, confronting the so-called Eastern bloc militarily would be unwise and perhaps destabilizing for world peace.

Here’s a better alternative.

West should improve common ground with Eastern bloc

The West and the Eastern bloc shares common concerns on weak states such as Afghanistan being prey to insurgency and radicalization.  They can not only pose threats to their own democratic governments; they also have become global issues causing fears of terrorism, illegal immigration, drug trafficking etc.

This is common ground where East agrees with the West. Therefore, both sides should work towards a policy that explores such common interests and use them to bridges gaps in interests between the so-called Western and a resurgent Eastern bloc.

East and West on Afghanistan

After being in Afghanistan for almost 12 years, the US-led coalition has threatened a “zero option” exit strategy from Afghanistan. This has been reiterated after Afghan President Hamid Karzai delayed signing the BilateralSecurity Agreement (BSA) with the US for preconditions he thinks should be met before signing such a document.

Congress responded with slashing 50 percent of its civilian aid to Afghanistan and a further cut-off in aid and support to the Afghan security institutions. This is premature and perhaps ill-advised.

Coming out of the Cold War as a divided country ruled by the Taliban, Afghan institutions are still weak. Democracy needs more time to mature. The Afghan economy needs more development aid and foreign investment to become self-reliant. We need to maintain achievements in education and women empowerment still needs investment and support.

As voiced in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul in Nov. 2013, most Afghans want closer relations with the world. Few want a return to the 1990s or even 1970s when Communists briefly ruled the country.

However, the “zero option” threat could push Afghanistan back to the 1990s or even earlier circumstances.

Such a scenario may provoke Russia and other regional players to reconsider its role in Afghanistan, where a considerable number of former Soviet Union loyalists still live. Whether the West wants such a situation or a Crimea type intervention is a question for Western capitals to answer.

Watching the developments in Crimea and analyzing recent Russian foreign policy moves, the West does not seem happy. Therefore, it needs to keep its patience in countries such as Afghanistan and work on common interest of building stronger states from within. Otherwise, the geopolitical loss and Cold War politics in countries like Afghanistan may be too costly for Western capitals including Washington to accept.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoffs' Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/west-afghan-exit-247/

The Quarrel on BSA - Wishes of the Afghan People

The negotiations on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the US have stalled. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he may not sign the agreement as he wants US assurance for peace before he signs the document, while the US sees bringing peace as a long process and is threatening to pull out all troops by the end of 2014 if the BSA is not signed.  

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidelines for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces will be withdrawn.   

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the US and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community. This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga meeting in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. 

However, Karzai has declined to sign the agreement any time soon. Most recently he said in an interview with the Washington Post that he wouldn't sign it and perhaps his future replacement could sign the document. 

Karzai's official position is that the document should not be only a nicely worded and rhetorical document, but it should pave the way for lasting peace and security in Afghanistan. He believes Afghan peace is in the hands of the US and Pakistan. 

What he means by stating this publicly is that the US can exert sufficient diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to bring the Taliban to serious peace talks. Afghanistan believes Pakistan may have influence over the insurgent groups across the border. 

The US finds it hard to respond to reach an agreement over this with Karzai, thus negotiations have stalled.

Whether the BSA is signed or not will have significant implications for both Afghanistan and the world. Two scenarios can be predicted. One is that the BSA is not signed and US and other NATO forces leave Afghanistan for good. Another is that the BSA is left to the new president to sign.  

If the BSA is not signed and the US and allies decide to leave Afghanistan for good at the end of 2014, it would be a dangerous and perhaps an unwise decision. Afghanistan still needs international technical and financial support to establish thorough and capable forces that are able to defend Afghanistan's integrity and have a monopoly over power.  

Such a decision would also open up the country's weak institutions to potential exploitation, as happened in the 1990s, and devolve the country back to one that poses serious security threats affecting Afghanistan, its immediate neighbors and rest of the world. 

Besides, all the efforts and achievements of the country in the past decade would soon vanish as weak institutions and budding democracy still need international attention and support to mature. 

Thus, while the BSA is an important agreement, the international community should not link the complete pullout with financial support to Afghanistan.

A second scenario is that the US plans beyond the Afghan presidential elections to be held next month and has the BSA signed with the next government. This may be a better decision as most of the presidential candidates have shown interest in singing the document. 

However, in deciding this the US would risk time and there is no guarantee that a future president would be swift in signing the BSA before the end of 2014. 

It is also important for the international community to take into consideration the needs and willingness of the Afghan people to seek international commitment in building on their enormous achievements since 2002 and to create a better society in Afghanistan well beyond 2014. 

In this regard, the political upheaval and disagreements over the BSA should not be the only deciding factor on staying or leaving in Afghanistan. 

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/

Why Afghans are ‘The Dark Horse’ in Sports

A recent article in the UAE called Afghan cricketers the ‘Dark Horse’ which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

The world outside Afghanistan does not hear much good news about Afghans. News on violent incidents, a murky insurgent war, andwomen’s rights usually make headlines across popular global media outlets. However, there are lots of positive things happening in this beautiful Central Asian country that the outside world may not know.

Among others, sports are flourishing in the country; its national players are making headlines for achievements that stun many. Football (soccer) and cricket are two sports where Afghans have proven their worth.

Afghanistan as the South Asian Soccer Champs

Not long ago, Afghanistan’s national football team was in disarray. Under the Taliban, football was banned as it did not fit well with their political agenda. Afghan youth could not imagine playing the game again in Afghanistan.

However, after the new government in 2002, Afghan soccer players re-entered the Ghazi soccer stadium in Kabul, used for prosecution just a few years ago. In less than a decade, Afghanistan went on to beat regional giants. On December 11, 2011, Afghanistan played in the final with India and lost due to a biased umpire. However, on September 11, 2013, the Afghan national team beat India in the South Asian Football Champions final to become the football champions in the region.

Watching the game live on TVs in Kabul, emotions were high among the diverse Afghan nation. Cheers and prayers accompanied every minute of the final game. Afghanistan remained undefeated in the tournament of the South Asian countries and went on to win the championship. Celebrations in Kabul were unusual. It was the first time in Afghan history that all Afghans cheered in jubilation of their national prestige. Thousands stormed out to the streets of Kabul to make it a lively event. Under the beautiful and colorful flag of Afghanistan, Afghans cheered praises of their country in unison.

Afghans Stunning the World in Cricket

Afghan cricket is another amazing story. Nearly 10 years ago, cricket did not exist in Afghanistan. Only those Afghans who had lived in Pakistan had learned it, and had practiced playing with a tennis ball wrapped in white scotch tape. Afghan refugees would come out to playgrounds in burning heat in Pakistani towns to play and enjoy the sports. In many instances, they would win from the local Pakistani teams in Pakistan.

After the Karzai government in Afghanistan, some of those Afghans returned to Afghanistan. They formed an amateur cricket team to practice the game in country. Despite minimum equipment, training and facilities, it wasn’t long until they began crushing  international teams outside their home country.

Now, the Afghan national team has not only qualified for the international world cups with the One Day International (ODI) and the newer format T20 versions of the game; they are also winning at the under 19 level and winning big.  Most recently, the Afghan under-19 national team has beaten cricket giants such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia (teams like Brazil in soccer) and is in the quarter finals of the ICC World Cup to be played this week.

The Afghan national cricket team is also a success story. They are now in Sri Lanka preparing for the Asia Cup, a regional competition including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The team is also preparing for the upcoming ICC T20 World Cup as well as the ICC ODI World Cup tournaments to be played later this year. They are expected to surprise viewers.

Afghan cricket players are described as ruthless and aggressive. They win big and win with style. A recent commentary in the United Arab Emirates called them the “Dark Horse” which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

As Afghan youth have proven themselves in the soccer and cricket fields, they are also committed to making Afghanistan a leading nation both in the region and abroad. And they can do so.

With keeping the sports a-political, open to more Afghans, and provided with the right resources and attention both from the Afghan government and internationals, it can continue to play a more successful role in further pacifying and uniting a nation that has been too long devastated by war and conflict.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/afghans-dark-horse-sports-214/

The Bilateral Security Agreement in Afghanistan

Critics who support President Karzai’s position agree that a bilateral security agreement between the United States and Afghanistan should pave the way for lasting peace and security.

Various analysts have considered 2014 to be an important year for Afghanistan. Many things are to happen here that will define the country’s future.

In addition to the upcoming presidential elections, the US-led coalition is set to end its combat mission by the end of 2014 and reach an agreement with the Afghan government on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). In principle both sides agree on signing the agreement; however, the following explains why the pact has yet to be signed.

Fate of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA)

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidance for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces would be withdrawn.

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the United States and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community.

This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. However, as correctly pointed out by President Karzai, Afghans also want the agreement to set a break from the past and lead to serious peace talks and genuine peace and security in Afghanistan.

Critics in Afghanistan who support President Karzai’s position agree that an Afghan-US agreement should not be only a nicely worded, rhetorical document: It should pave the way for lasting peace and security. Otherwise, the status quo will continue.

Afghans do not want the continuation of the status quo

As much as there is a general desire for a continued international presence, there is also a similar desire of a brokered diplomatic solution. The Afghan President believes that the international community can mediate such a deal.

Moreover, in light of the BSA agreement, Afghans want to continue their march towards a more prosperous and democratic society. In the past 12 years, Afghanistan’s GDP has increased, infrastructure has improved, and financial services and telecommunication has expanded significantly. The Afghan private sector development has helped in job creation and economic development, and it continues to have great potential for development and investment in mining, human resources, transportation and local production.

However, the uncertainty and insecurity poses a serious threat to these sectors and undermines all progress including improvement in women’s rights, good governance and civil society development.

The BSA therefore needs to respond to the uncertainty. It needs to guarantee that an agreement, just like the NATO agreement, should encompass and guarantee a measurable success. It should be a concise proposal for better security across Afghanistan.

If the BSA promises these results, Afghan President Karzai or his successor may sign the agreement sooner than later.

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Note: The article was also published here: http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/

Fighting Poverty Today

Our generation has experienced unprecedented progress in the reduction of global poverty. Millions of poor have come out of poverty in India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Pakistan and other countries. However, poverty is still threatening million around the globe and is still a serious cause for conflicts, violence and instability.

I believe that advancing the following issues will have a more profound impact on poverty reduction in the decades to come:

Economic growth

In general terms, economic growth has played a critical role in mitigating global poverty. Developments in technology, access to finance and globalization have been at the core of economic growth that has enabled many countries to escape poverty. Accelerated by these factors, economic growth will continue to play an important role in poverty reduction in the years to come.

Technology

Innovations in technology have enhanced the poor’s capacity to deal with poverty. Developments in telecommunication technology such as mobile phones and online markets have enabled millions around the globe to use for building small and medium size businesses.

Technology also helps them access inputs and market their products globally. These technology improvements and affordable use in underprivileged areas will have a profound impact on enabling the poor to fight poverty.

Access to Finance

Access to small loans has accelerated economic growth in many poor societies and has helped them come out of poverty. The poor’s ability to access finance, particularly micro-finance, has helped millions in countries such as Bangladesh to start and maintain small businesses. Underprivileged people’s access to finance has helped remove the middlemen who used to charge outrageous interest on their loans to the poor.

Now, legal microfinance schemes have enabled poor women and men in rural areas to benefit from the profits of goods and services they produce more directly.

Globalization

Globalization has played an important role in economic growth for global societies. Various facets of globalization, such as improvements in communication technology including the internet, transportation hubs, the proliferation of knowledge and skills across national boundaries, the connection and remittance of the diaspora to local communities and the use of the English language, have helped many depressed societies.

Women’s Empowerment

A second major and critical development in the global poverty reduction campaign is the development and empowerment of women. Women’s empowerment has enabled them to undertake non-traditional jobs outside their homes making them more productive citizens as well as better equipped to deal with poverty.

Women’s ability to contribute more efficiently to society has eased the burden of dealing with poverty in their societies. Better access to education and other technical skills and improvements in women’s rights coupled with targeted programs promoting women’s entrepreneurship has played an important role in poverty reduction.

For Afghanistan

Afghanistan, a country grappling with poverty, needs to learn from these suggestions. The Afghan government and other stakeholders including civil society should lobby for and implement policies that targets poverty. Maintaining strong economic growth, which was nearly at 10 percent in the past decade, and improvement in Afghan women’s access to education and participation in the economy needs to continue to help transform Afghanistan into a more prosperous society.

Note: The article was also published here: http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/poverty-fight-global-249/