The Governance Question Post US-Taliban Deal in Afghanistan

The United States and the Taliban's negotiators are inching closer to reaching a peace deal in Afghanistan. The 8th round of talks in Doha, Qatar ended on Aug. 12, 2019, with both sides issuing positive tweets about the discussions. Rumors have it that the deal will help end the nearly 20 years old conflict between America and the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, there are a number of questions that the people of Afghanistan do not have answers to and which have significant consequences on any peace deal. Chief among them is the modality of a post-peace-deal governance system in Afghanistan.

The United States sent troops to Afghanistan after 9/11 to respond to the terrible events that had happened in New York and DC in 2001. This also meant dismantling the Taliban regime that was ruling Afghanistan than under the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In the Emirate, Mullah Omar was pronounced to be the ruler of all Muslims, Afghans in particular, by a council of fellow mullahs, or religious leaders, for an indefinite period of time. While Afghanistan’s capital is Kabul, Mullah Omar ruled from the historic Kandahar city located in the west of the country. In 2001, American bombers effectively eliminated the Taliban’s regime in Afghanistan in a short period of time. An American-led international coalition also hurried in Bonn to establish a new, democracy-based government system for Afghanistan. Many NATO member states sent troops to Afghanistan to defend the country’s fragile democracy.

Led by a president and two vice presidents, the highly centralized presidential government system was enshrined into the country's new constitution that was drafted in a historic Loya Jirga (or Grand Council) in 2003 and ratified by the then Afghan president, Hamid Karzai in early 2004. Under the system, President Karzai served for two consecutive 5-year terms in addition to being the transitional and interim president for two years and six months respectively.

In 2014, President Karzai transferred power to the current President, Ashraf Ghani. Ghani formed an American brokered coalition government named the National Unity Government of Afghanistan. NUG, formed after a troubled election, introduced an unconstitutional Chief Executive Officer (CEO) into the governance system who effectively controlled about 50% of the government. The governing period of the NUG ended on May 22, 2019, but it was extended until the election date of September 28, 2019, by Afghanistan’s Supreme Court.

The big question now that a peace deal is being brokered is about the governance system in Afghanistan after the peace deal. Will Afghanistan be ruled under a presidential government system as required by the Afghan constitution, or could there be a change to an Emirate as the Taliban prefers?

The constitution-required presidential system will require credible elections to be held in September 2019 that will give legitimacy to any new government formed thereafter. The Emirate does not require elections; a group of like-minded elites or power-holders will choose an Amir, or Chief, that will run as the de facto President for an indefinite period of time. The latter is a stark deviation from the existing Afghan constitution and the recent democratic development in Afghanistan.

President Ghani has made it clear that he wants the constitution to rule. In a recent speech as part of the Eid-ul-Adha message in Kabul on August 11, 2019, he outlined that elections were a priority for his government and then any peace deal. The Taliban, however, has an opposite view. For them, a peace deal with the American is a priority, not the Afghan elections. The formation of a new government or the modality of it is something they may 'discuss’ later with Afghan political groups. They refuse to talk to any representative government in Kabul.

The two opposing views present formidable questions on and for peace. How will Afghanistan be ruled after September 2019? Will there be elections? How will the Taliban be integrated into the governance system? And what happens to the constitution?

The next few months when the American-Taliban is working hard to reach a peace deal will also be crucial to find answers to these questions. It will be also critical how the United States and other members of the international community validate a post-deal governance system for Afghanistan. It remains unclear whether the international community will continue to support Afghanistan's constitutional governance system or will they push Afghans to ‘compromise’ on it to establish something different? Answers to these questions will have a lasting impact on the political dilemma and the viability of the peace settlement in Afghanistan.